Making Sense of US-Ukraine Negotations

Trump withholds aid, berates Zelensky, negotiates with Putin first, praises Putin (see “Why Christian Russia is a Fantasy” on this point). Is the US aligning with Russia?

I. “The U.S. aligning with Russia” is not what’s happening

Even when U.S. aid to Ukraine changes pace or tone under different administrations, this does not imply:

• strategic alignment with Russia

• cultural affinity translating into alliance

• abandonment of Ukraine

• a shift in the global security architecture

Rather, the U.S. political system contains competing doctrines of how best to manage Russia and Europe, and Trump’s doctrine has characteristics that look different from the post–Cold War mainstream.

To understand why Ukraine aid appears weaker or more conditional under Trump, we need to examine four structural factors:

1. A different theory of deterrence

2. A different theory of burden-sharing

3. A different theory of negotiation leverage

4. A different theory of U.S. national interest

None of these require alignment with Russia; they simply reflect a different strategic framework.

II. Factor 1 — A different theory of deterrence: Transactional vs. architectural

Traditional U.S. foreign policy (post-1945) uses architectural deterrence:

• Strengthen alliances

• Arm partners heavily

• Keep adversaries contained via long-term commitments

• Position U.S. power as a stabilizing force

Trump’s worldview uses transactional deterrence:

• Threats and pressure create immediate leverage

• Alliances should deliver measurable returns

• Commitments are bargaining chips, not sacred architecture

• Negotiation is more important than structural stability

Under this framework:

• Withholding or slowing aid is not support for Russia; it is a pressure tactic.

• The goal is often to push partners into negotiating or making concessions, not to change alliances.

This shift in theory explains much of the observed behavior around Ukraine.

III. Factor 2 — Burden-sharing logic: Europe should pay more

A core Trump-era view is:

Europe should carry more of the defense burden for its own region.

From this perspective:

• Ukraine is in Europe’s neighborhood, not America’s.

• The U.S. should not be the primary military funder.

• Aid should be used as leverage to pressure NATO states to increase their own commitments.

This creates strategic friction:

Under traditional U.S. doctrine:

U.S. aid to Ukraine = defense of the liberal order.

Under Trump’s doctrine:

U.S. aid to Ukraine = a bargaining chip to force Europe to contribute more.

Thus, a slowdown of aid is interpreted externally as “pro-Russia,” but internally it is “pressure on Europe.”

IV. Factor 3 — Negotiation leverage: Trump sees wars as negotiable conflicts, not long-term structural contests

Historically, U.S. policy treats Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as:

• a structural threat to the European security system

• a violation that must be reversed or deterred without rewarding aggression

Trump’s foreign-policy theory is more transactional and deal-oriented:

• Wars end through deals

• Deals require leverage

• Leverage often comes from ambiguity, not clarity

• Strong commitments reduce bargaining power

In this framework, open-ended aid to Ukraine reduces leverage in any future negotiation with Moscow.

So withholding aid can be interpreted — within that doctrine — as creating pressure for both sides to negotiate.

Again, this does not imply support for Russia; it implies a different negotiation philosophy.

V. Factor 4 — Different prioritization of national interests

Traditional U.S. foreign policy sees the European order as central to American power.

Trump’s worldview — shared by some national conservatives — prioritizes:

• U.S. domestic issues

• Hemispheric stability (Americas > Europe)

• Great-power competition with China

• Reduced entanglement in European security architecture

This naturally leads to:

• Less automatic support for European conflicts

• Greater willingness to push Europe to take the lead

• Greater focus on U.S.–China strategic competition

So Ukraine may appear deprioritized, not because of alignment with Russia, but because other theaters (Indo-Pacific) are seen as more strategically decisive.

VI. Factor 5 — Congressional coalitions shifted

It’s also important to distinguish between:

• Trump’s administration

• Trump’s congressional allies

• Broader U.S. institutions (Pentagon, State Dept.)

Different actors have different priorities:

• Some in Congress oppose Ukraine aid on fiscal grounds

• Some oppose it on nationalist grounds

• Some oppose it on isolationist grounds

• Some oppose it to gain negotiating leverage within U.S. domestic politics

This is not monolithic alignment with Russia; it’s a complex domestic coalition with overlapping motivations.

VII. Factor 6 — Negotiation with Putin ≠ alignment with Putin

Negotiation with adversaries is a standard U.S. tactic when:

• de-escalation is desired

• a frozen conflict is feared

• allies are divided

• domestic pressure builds

• costs escalate

Presidents negotiate with adversaries when it suits strategic aims:

• Reagan negotiated with the USSR

• Nixon negotiated with China

• Obama negotiated with Iran

• Trump negotiated with North Korea

Negotiation does not indicate affinity; it indicates a different pathway to conflict resolution.

Under Trump’s framework:

• Clarity hardens positions

• Ambiguity creates bargaining opportunities

Thus he prefers direct leader-to-leader negotiation, especially with strongman figures.

VIII. Factor 7 — Ukraine policy is shaped by institutional incentives, not cultural similarity

Even if some Trump-aligned thinkers admire Russia’s illiberal rhetoric, U.S. state institutions do not shift:

• Pentagon remains committed to NATO’s defense

• Intelligence community maintains adversarial posture

• Europe remains a long-term strategic partner

• Russia remains a long-term institutional rival

A president can change tone, tempo, and tactics, but not the deep structure.

So the appearance of weaker Ukraine aid under Trump is not evidence of a realignment; it’s evidence of:

• different prioritization

• different pressure tactics

• different negotiation philosophy

• different burden-sharing expectations

The underlying U.S.–Russia rivalry remains intact.

Synthesis

Why does the U.S. appear to reduce Ukraine support or negotiate more with Russia under Trump?

Because Trump’s strategic framework differs from traditional U.S. foreign policy:

Traditional U.S. ViewTrump’s ViewUkraine aid = defending orderUkraine aid = bargaining leverageRussia = structural adversaryRussia = negotiable competitorEurope = vital allyEurope = underpaying partnerClarity detersAmbiguity creates dealsLong-term architectureTransactional diplomacyCommitment shows credibilityCommitment loses leverage

This difference in strategy appears externally as “pro-Russia,” but structurally it’s a shift in how the U.S. pursues its interests, not a shift in which side it’s on.

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